SMH today has one of those lists that get thrown together from a bunch of old columns to make a summer/holiday/everyone-else-is-on-leave article.
This one is the ‘10 propheices for the digital millennium‘. Never mind that it’s about the next 10 years - ‘millennium’ sounds much cooler. Much grander.
Some of the thoughts are pretty spot on, in my opinion. Point 7 (Increased importance of technology for the aged) is bang on. I’ve worked a little on projects going on at UNSW along these lines, of remote monitoring and alert systems for elderly and infirm patients who live at home, rather than at an institution. The use technology can help prevent injury, or get a rapid response when something does go wrong. This sort of thing will become increasingly important as the cost of such devices goes down, and technology becomes more and more prevalent.
Other ‘predictions’ are bollocks, to varying degrees.
2. The decline of the PC
This is a consequence of the first prediction [the internet will become the 'supernet']. PCs will not die - indeed, they will become massively more powerful, but they will become only one of many types of computing device. Mobile phones and “thin clients” will be much more popular ways of connecting to the supernet.
Phones, sure. “Thin clients”, however, will not take off. Their utility has been touted for years, but no-one wants to use a computer that isn’t all there. They’re just not very useful.
4. The decline of copyright
Regular readers of this column will know this is a hobbyhorse of mine. Copyright and most intellectual property laws are now an anachronism. Attempts by record companies and film studios and book publishers to stop people copying digital media are doomed to failure.
Technology is forcing big changes to business models.
Not convinced about this one. There’s a difference between copyright, fair-use provisions, and business models. Widely available does not necessarily imply freely available. The laws, and their implementation, might well be anachronistic, but the concepts of protecting the creator’s rights inherent to them are not.
8. The decline of IT as a speciality
A hundred years ago it seems someone predicted that if telephony job opportunities continued to grow at the same rate, within a generation everybody in the world would be a telephone operator. Well, with automatic dialling, everyone is. Somebody else once predicted a similar thing about computer programmers. Today we all program computers, by the very act of using them. There are fewer specialists, but many more generalists.
Such rot. We are not telephone operators. Telstra is. We do not program computers by the very act of using them. Not true, and incredibly so. Programmers are the people who code the programs, not use them. I also like the ’somebody else once predicted’. Top notch journalism.
The biggest bit of rubbish in this column, however, comes just over half-way through. I guess ‘9 predictions about the digital millennium’ isn’t as catchy as ‘10 predictions’.
6. The threat from intelligent machines
Look up “The Singularity” in Wikipedia or somewhere. The term, invented by American writers Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil, refers to the time in the near future when machines become more intelligent than humans and start replicating themselves. Who then will be the dominant life form on the planet?
You’ve got to be kidding. AI is not a slippery slope.
Looking this term up in ‘Wikipedia or somewhere’, it’s quite easy to see that Kurzweil did not invent the term, Vinge did. And he wrote about it in science fiction. Kurzweil has done a bunch of statistical extrapolation of technological growth to come up with pinpointing the ’singularity’ at 2045 (outside the purview of this column, it would seem), but he’s not without his critics. Specifically, it’s argued that his analysis is a case of ’static analysis’, where current trends are simplistically extended into the future… like, for example, telephone operators, or IT specialists.
I’m not sure why I keep expecting the Herald to not print stuff like this, given it comes out with such regularity, and the focus of the online site is so clearly trashy and tabloid.
Bah humbug.








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